Health Forecasting: Tools for Improving Population Health


Forecasting is common across a wide variety of disciplines, and projecting into the future often helps to inform the policymaking process, whether it’s the population trends produced by demographers or the fiscal projections of economists. But conspicuously absent from many discussions are projections on the population health impact based on various scenarios, and major health and health care policy decisions are often based on limited data and insights into the health benefits of proposed policies and interventions. The Health Forecasting Project aims to help decision-makers choose policies and programs with the best health return on investment.


Health Forecasting provides a useful framework to anticipate the future effects of current decisions and actions. It provides:

  • Modeling of future health scenarios;
  • The application of research evidence on various determinants of health to available population data using a continuous time-microsimulation framework;
  • Evidence-based reports;
  • A health forecasting web-based tool where users can input unique demographics (age, gender, ethnicity) of a population of interest and generate reports of long-term outcomes associated with changes in risk factors and the effects of different interventions;
  • Issue briefs


Health Forecasting enables decision-makers to get answers to essential questions that affect their health-related proposed and existing policies by serving as a critical analytic tool for policy debates at all levels of government and the private sector. It helps quantify the expenditures associated with certain diseases over time, and interjects new and valuable information about our future health based on current policies and programs.


To access Health Forecasting Tools: Click Here   


Jonathan Fielding

Department of Health Policy and Management

jfieldin@ucla.edu

Brian Cole, Co-Principal Investigator

Department of Environmental Health Sciences

blcole@ucla.edu